xtratropical cyclones are responsible for most precipitation falling north of 408N, especially in winter.Greater moisture availability in a warmer world is expected to boost the intensity of cyclone-associated precipitation(CAP), but how changes in cyclone frequency and intensity impact this trend is uncertain. Here, we use two atmosphericreanalyses and 18 climate models participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to up-date projections of future CAP. Models project that nearly the entire Northern Hemisphere exhibits increasing winterCAP with continued warming [by at least 5% (18C)21 global warming throughout, and over 30% in the Arctic and easternAsia]. Summer CAP increases over the Pacific Ocean (2%–10%) and Arctic (up to 20%) but decreases over midlatitudecontinents and the Atlantic Ocean (exceeding 20% in places). These outcomes result from the relative balance betweentwo overarching and often opposing trends: Extratropical cyclones (and therefore CAP events) become less frequent(except in the Arctic), but the average event produces more precipitation in the future (especially by more intense precipi-tation rates). Historically, CAP intensity trends are driven more by moisture availability than cyclone intensity (i.e., stron-ger winds); projections indicate future CAP intensity enhancement will be driven almost entirely by moisture availability.The strongest CAP trends historically are increases on the west side of the midlatitude oceanic storm tracks, but projec-tions indicate that the Arctic Ocean will exhibit the strongest positive future trends because of exceptional increases inmoisture availability combined with little change to storm frequency or intensity.

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Champ Valeur
Titre A decomposition of the key drivers of current and future Northern Hemisphere cyclone-associated precipitation trends
Publication general type journal article
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Theme Atmosphere
Version 1.0
Publisher Journal of Climate
Date Published 2025
DOI 10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0453.1
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Champ Valeur
Authors
Authors 1
Author Name
Crawford, Alex
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Personal
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alex.crawford@umanitoba.ca
Affiliation
Centre for Earth Observation Science - University of Manitoba
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Authors 2
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Loeb, Nicole
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Affiliation
Centre for Earth Observation Science - University of Manitoba
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McCrystall, Michelle
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Champ Valeur
License Name Other (Open)
Licence Type Open
Licence Schema Name SPDX
Licence URL https://www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses
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