The continuous ice-covered period (cip), advance day (fad), and retreat day (lrd) are defined using a sea ice thickness threshold of 10 cm. Each "year" is from September 1, Year 1 to August 31, Year 2 and dates are given as units of "days starting January 1 of Year 1". Original data source is 49 simulations from the historical and shared socioeconomic pathway 5-8.5 (ssp585) experiments from the 20 models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 6 (CMIP6). A weighted average of the simulations was calculated for each 0.5°C global temperature anomaly bin (i.e., tanom = "1°C" means 0.5°C ≤ T' < 1.5°C).
Weights were determined using a balance of model performance and independence, following the general framework of Knutti et al. (2017; https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl072012). "Performance" was assessed by comparing modelled sea ice and temperature variables to observed values. More specifically, the compared variables were the averages and trends of sea ice retreat and advance, the ice-free period, and regional 2-m air temperature over western and southern sectors of Hudson Bay for the period 1979-2021. For sea ice, the observational reference was the average phenology derived from Bootstrap and NASA Team algorithms applied to passive microwave data. For temperature, the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature dataset was used. The weighting parameters were sigma_D = 0.49 and sigma_S = 0.50.
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