The shrinking of Arctic-wide September sea ice extent is often cited as an indicator of modern climate change; however, the timing of seasonal sea ice retreat/advance and the length of the open-water period are often more relevant to stakeholders working at regional and local scales. Here we highlight changes in regional open-water periods at multiple warming thresholds. We show that, in the latest generation of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), the open-water period lengthens by 63 days on average with 2 °C of global warming above the 1850-1900 average, and by over 90 days in several Arctic seas. Nearly the entire Arctic, including the Transpolar Sea Route, has at least 3 months of open water per year with 3.5 °C warming, and at least 6 months with 5 °C warming. Model bias compared to satellite data suggests that even such dramatic projections may be conservative. In several of the Arctic ocean basins, the period of open water without sea-ice cover will lengthen by more than 90 days under 2 oC of global warming, suggest analyses of the latest (CMIP6) climate model simulations.

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  • Arctic Sea Ice Phenology in CMIP6 Dataset

    Themes: Cryosphere

    The seasonal timing of summer sea ice retreat (sea ice concentration falls below 15%) and fall sea ice advance (sea ice concentration rises above 15%) is recorded annually, as... Read more

Metadata

Field Value
Title Arctic open-water periods are projected to lengthen dramatically by 2100
Publication general type journal article
Project Name Arctic Sea Ice Phenology
Climate Forcing of Arctic Sea Ice: Drivers and Impacts
Keyword Vocabulary
Keyword Vocabulary URL
Theme Cryosphere
Version 1.0
Publisher Springer Nature
Date Published 2021
DOI 10.1038/s43247-021-00183-x
Language
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Authors
Authors 1
Author Name
Crawford, Alex
Type of Name
Personal
Email
alex.crawford@umanitoba.ca
Affiliation
Centre for Earth Observation Science - University of Manitoba
ORCID ID
0000-0003-1561-290X
Authors 2
Author Name
Stroeve, Julienne
Type of Name
Personal
Email
juliene.stroeve@umanitoba.ca
Affiliation
Centre for Earth Observation Science - University of Manitoba
ORCID ID
0000-0001-7316-8320
Authors 3
Author Name
Smith, Abigail
Type of Name
Personal
Email
Affiliation
ORCID ID
Authors 4
Author Name
Jahn, Alexandra
Type of Name
Personal
Email
Affiliation
ORCID ID
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License Name Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
Licence Type Open
Licence Schema Name SPDX
Licence URL https://spdx.org/licenses
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Awards 1
Funded by
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