Metadata

Field Value

Title

Ice-free period too long for Southern and Western Hudson Bay polar bear populations if global warming exceeds 1.6 to 2.6 °C

Abstract

Publication general type

journal article

Project Name

['eddc5af7-8854-4204-ac03-d1f1b4c6d6d7']

Keyword Vocabulary

Keyword Vocabulary URL

Theme

Version

1.0

Publisher

Communications Earth and Environment

Date Published

2024

DOI

10.1038/s43247-024-01430-7

Authors

Authors 1

Author Name

Stroeve, Julienne

Type of Name

Personal

Email

Affiliation

Centre for Earth Observation Science - University of Manitoba

ORCID ID

Authors 2

Author Name

Crawford, Alex

Type of Name

Personal

Email

alex.crawford@umanitoba.ca

Affiliation

Centre for Earth Observation Science - University of Manitoba

ORCID ID

Authors 3

Author Name

Ferguson, Steve

Type of Name

Personal

Email

Affiliation

ORCID ID

Authors 4

Author Name

Stirling, Ian

Type of Name

Personal

Email

Affiliation

ORCID ID

Authors 5

Author Name

Archer, Louise

Type of Name

Personal

Email

Affiliation

ORCID ID

Authors 6

Author Name

York, Geoffrey

Type of Name

Personal

Email

Affiliation

ORCID ID

Authors 7

Author Name

Babb, David

Type of Name

Personal

Email

Affiliation

ORCID ID

Authors 8

Author Name

Mallett, Robbie

Type of Name

Personal

Email

Affiliation

ORCID ID

License Name

Licence Type

Licence Schema Name

SPDX

Licence URL

https://spdx.org/licenses

Awards

Related Resources

Language

Data and Resources

Field Value

URL

https://canwin-datahub.ad.umanitoba.ca/data/dataset/f8564f96-cccc-410e-947a-ada219056653/resource/5c8f2982-0083-4582-a6c2-47d10969a52f/download/s43247-024-01430-7.pdf

Name

Ice-free period too long for Southern and Western Hudson Bay polar bear populations if global warming exceeds 1.6 to 2.6 °C

Description

Hudson Bay has warmed over 1 °C in the last 30 years. Coincident with this warming, seasonal patterns have shifted, with the spring sea ice melting earlier and the fall freeze-up occurring later, leading to a month longer of ice-free conditions. This extended ice-free period presents a significant challenge for polar bears, as it restricts their hunting opportunities for seals and their ability to accumulate the necessary body weight for successful reproduction. Drawing on the latest insights from CMIP6, our updated projections of the ice-free period indicate a more spatially detailed and alarming outlook for polar bear survival. Limiting global warming to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels may prevent the ice-free period from exceeding 183 days in both western and southern Hudson Bay, providing some optimism for adult polar bear survival. However, with longer ice-free periods already substantially impacting recruitment, extirpation for polar bears in this region may already be inevitable.

Format

PDF

Resource Category

documents

Related Datasets

Field Value

Title

CMIP6 Hudson Bay Sea Ice Thickness Phenology

URL

https://canwin-datahub.ad.umanitoba.ca/data/fr/dataset/cmip6-hudson-bay-sea-ice-thickness-phenology