{"help": "https://canwin-datahub.ad.umanitoba.ca/data/en/api/3/action/help_show?name=package_show", "success": true, "result": {"Identifier": "10.1038/s43247-024-01430-7", "PublicationYear": "2024", "Publisher": "Communications Earth and Environment", "ResourceType": "journal article", "Rights": "", "Version": "1.0", "author": null, "author_email": null, "citation": "", "creator_user_id": "cbbec6b1-882b-4227-8cea-38c799ee1dea", "descriptionType": "Abstract", "id": "f8564f96-cccc-410e-947a-ada219056653", "isopen": false, "language": "", "licenceType": "", "license_id": null, "license_title": null, "maintainer": null, "maintainer_email": null, "metadata_created": "2024-08-26T14:29:49.217225", "metadata_modified": "2024-08-26T14:34:36.398482", "name": "hudson-bay-polar-bear-projections-2024", "notes": "Hudson Bay has warmed over 1 \u00b0C in the last 30 years. Coincident with this warming, seasonal patterns have shifted, with the spring sea ice melting earlier and the fall freeze-up occurring later, leading to a month longer of ice-free conditions. This extended ice-free period presents a significant challenge for polar bears, as it restricts their hunting opportunities for seals and their ability to accumulate the necessary body weight for successful reproduction. Drawing on the latest insights from CMIP6, our updated projections of the ice-free period indicate a more spatially detailed and alarming outlook for polar bear survival. Limiting global warming to 2 \u00b0C above pre-industrial levels may prevent the ice-free period from exceeding 183 days in both western and southern Hudson Bay, providing some optimism for adult polar bear survival. However, with longer ice-free periods already substantially impacting recruitment, extirpation for polar bears in this region may already be inevitable.", "num_resources": 1, "num_tags": 3, "organization": {"id": "9e21f6b6-d13f-4ba2-a379-fd962f507071", "name": "ceos", "title": "Centre for Earth Observation Science", "type": "organization", "description": "The Centre for Earth Observation Science (CEOS) was established in 1994 with a mandate to research, preserve and communicate knowledge of Earth system processes using the technologies of Earth Observation Science. Research is multidisciplinary and collaborative seeking to understand the complex interrelationships between elements of Earth systems, and how these systems will likely respond to climate change. Although researchers have worked in many regions, the Arctic marine system has always been a unifying focus of activity.\r\n\r\nIn 2012, CEOS, along with the Greenland Climate Research Centre (GCRC, Nuuk, Greenland) and the Arctic Research Centre (ARC, Aarhus, Denmark) established the Arctic Science Partnership, thereby integrating academic and research initiatives.\r\n\r\nAreas of existing research activity are divided among key themes:\r\n\r\nArctic Anthropology/Paleoclimatology: LiDAR scanning and digital site preservation, archaeo-geophysics, permafrost degredation, lithic morphometrics, zooarchaeology, proxy studies, paleodistribution of sea ice, landscape learning, Paleo-Eskimo culture, Thule Inuit culture, ethnographic analogy, traditional knowledge, climate change and northern heritage resource management.\r\n\r\nAtmospheric Studies/Meteorology: Boundary layer, precipitation, clouds, storms and extreme weather, circulation, eddy correlations, polar vortex, climate, teleconnections, geophysical fluid dynamics, flux and energy budgets, ocean-sea ice-atmosphere interface, radiative transfer, ice albedo feedback, cloud radiative forcing, pCO2. \r\n\r\nBiogeochemistry: Organic carbon, greenhouse gases, bubbles, Ikaite, carbonate chemistry, CO2 fluxes, mercury and other trace metals, minerals, hydrocarbons, brine processes, otolith microchemistry, sediments, biomarkers. \r\n\r\nContaminants: Mercury, trace metals, PAHs, source, transport, transformation, pathways, bioaccumulations, marine ecosystems, marine chemistry. \r\nEarth Observation Science: Active and passive microwave, LiDAR, EM induction, spatial-temporal analysis, forward and inverse scattering models, complex permittivity, ocean colour, ocean surface roughness, NIR, TIR, satellite telemetry, GPS. 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Marine Mammals: Seals, whales, habitat, conservation, satellite telemetry, distribution, population studies, prey behaviour, bioacoustics.\r\n\r\nModelling: Simulation of sea ice and oceanic regional processes, Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO), ice-ocean modelling and interactions, hind cast simulations and projections for sea ice state and ocean variables based on CMIP5 scenarios and MIROC5 forcing, validation.\r\n\r\nOceanography: Circulation, temperature, in-flow and out-flow shelves, water dynamics, microturbulence, Beaufort Gyre, eddy correlations.\r\n\r\nSea Ice Geophysics:Thermodynamic and dynamic processes, extreme ice features and hazards, snow, ridges, polynyas.\r\n\r\nTraditional and Local Knowledge: Indigenous cultures, Inuit, Inuvialuit, oral history, toponomy, mobility and settlement, hunting, food security, sea ice use, community-based research, community-based monitoring, two ways of knowing.", "image_url": "2021-11-13-003953.952874UMLogoHORZ.jpg", "created": "2017-07-21T13:15:49.935872", "is_organization": true, "approval_status": "approved", "state": "active"}, "owner_org": "9e21f6b6-d13f-4ba2-a379-fd962f507071", "private": false, "related_datasets": ["66847fce-c9ca-429f-979b-effc44202997"], "related_programs": ["eddc5af7-8854-4204-ac03-d1f1b4c6d6d7"], "rightsIdentifierScheme": "SPDX", "rightsSchemeURI": "https://spdx.org/licenses", "schemeURI": "", "state": "active", "subjectScheme": "", "theme": ["3707ff10-6424-4858-9ec9-7d67b38831b3"], "title": "Ice-free period too long for Southern and Western Hudson Bay polar bear populations if global warming exceeds 1.6 to 2.6 \u00b0C", "type": "publication", "url": null, "version": null, "Author": [{"affiliation": "Centre for Earth Observation Science - University of Manitoba", "creatorName": "Stroeve, Julienne", "email": "", "nameIdentifier": "", "nameType": "Personal"}, {"affiliation": "Centre for Earth Observation Science - University of Manitoba", "creatorName": "Crawford, Alex", "email": "alex.crawford@umanitoba.ca", "nameIdentifier": "", "nameType": "Personal"}, {"affiliation": "", "creatorName": "Ferguson, Steve", "email": "", "nameIdentifier": "", "nameType": "Personal"}, {"affiliation": "", "creatorName": "Stirling, Ian", "email": "", "nameIdentifier": "", "nameType": "Personal"}, {"affiliation": "", "creatorName": "Archer, Louise", "email": "", "nameIdentifier": "", "nameType": "Personal"}, {"affiliation": "", "creatorName": "York, Geoffrey", "email": "", "nameIdentifier": "", "nameType": "Personal"}, {"affiliation": "", "creatorName": "Babb, David", "email": "", "nameIdentifier": "", "nameType": "Personal"}, {"affiliation": "", "creatorName": "Mallett, Robbie", "email": "", "nameIdentifier": "", "nameType": "Personal"}], "resources": [{"cache_last_updated": null, "cache_url": null, "created": "2024-08-26T14:30:38.956890", "datastore_active": false, "datastore_contains_all_records_of_source_file": false, "description": "Hudson Bay has warmed over 1 \u00b0C in the last 30 years. Coincident with this warming, seasonal patterns have shifted, with the spring sea ice melting earlier and the fall freeze-up occurring later, leading to a month longer of ice-free conditions. This extended ice-free period presents a significant challenge for polar bears, as it restricts their hunting opportunities for seals and their ability to accumulate the necessary body weight for successful reproduction. Drawing on the latest insights from CMIP6, our updated projections of the ice-free period indicate a more spatially detailed and alarming outlook for polar bear survival. Limiting global warming to 2 \u00b0C above pre-industrial levels may prevent the ice-free period from exceeding 183 days in both western and southern Hudson Bay, providing some optimism for adult polar bear survival. 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